Just when you think an NFL season is starting to make sense and you've got a decent handle on the weekly slate, naturally we get roughly 8-10 flips in the 3 p.m. ET hour.It felt that way at least -- there were probably three actual ATS flips in the early hour. But eight of the 14 games last week were within one score (eight or fewer points), and another game (Cowboys-Eagles) had the ATS decided by a late mi sed field goal.Another four ( over , over , over , over ) were technical upsets. We keep getting chaos week after chaos week, which is exactly what the NFL wants to happen.You heard it directly from the league at the owners' meetings this week. They want quarterbacks upright, slinging the football, scoring points and giving their teams chances to score late and pull off insanity. Let's embrace it, I gue s. Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ETTV:Amazon Prime Kamalei Correa Jersey |Stream:fuboTV ()Follow: Featured Game | Arizona Cardinals vs. New Orleans Saints Moneyline Spread Total ARI NO Pretty significant game for both teams, each sitting at 2-4 with nearly every single current 3-3 playoff team coming from the NFC West or NFC South. The Saints are riddled with injuries to key players: remains out and won't be available Thursday night when makes his season debut for the Cardinals. The Cardinals are the worst first-half team in the NFL this season. They're even worse in the first quarter -- Arizona has three points in the first six weeks of the year, joining the 2011 Browns, 2021 Jets and 2008 as the only teams to pull that off in the last 15 years. Those teams combined to win eight games. Totally random stat: The last Cardinals tight end with a 100-yard receiving game for Arizona happened in 1989. The Hopkins/Lattimore situation basically shifted me to Arizona here.The pick:Cardinals 28, Saints 21Props, Best Bets: Cardinals -2.5, rush yards overSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ () Featured Game | Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Moneyline Spread Total BAL CLE Since the Super Bowl era began, there have been 40 teams to hold double-digit leads in every game through the first six weeks of the season. The Ravens are the only one without a winning record. Lamar Jackson and both appear banged up heading into Thursday's practice. Lamar's last three games have been night and day compared to his first three, so it's fair to wonder about some kind of hampering injury affecting his play. If he and Andrews play, this could be a shootout -- the Browns have the second-worst defense in the league,. Baltimore is simply the middle of the league, but 24th against the run, where Cleveland excels. This feels like yet another smash spot, so check his rush yards and longest rush props. I think the over is the play here, but obviously keep an eye on Jackson and Andrews. The pick:Ravens 31, Browns 28Props, Best Bets: Over 45.5, Nick Chubb propsSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ () Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions Derrick Henry Jersey Moneyline Spread Total DAL DET returns for this game. The timing of 's three-pick performance and the quickne s with which Dak was available is not a coincidence. The Cowboys' sacks this season -- all 24 of them -- are the most by a Dallas team since 1987, a wild stat given they won three Super Bowls in that span. Dak's hand injury is pretty difficult to overcome here for me. The Lions' offensive line is top three in adjusted line yards; I can't weigh too much into the game on the road against Bill Belichick, given 's splits against the Pats coach. Goff still has a 22/6 TD/INT ratio in his last 10 games. IF Dak can play at a high level, I love the over here. I'll roll with the Lions instead, because they can win here and/or come flying through the backdoor with and likely returning.The Pick: Cowboys 28, Lions 27Bets: Lions +7Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ () Featured Game | Tenne see Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts Moneyline Spread Total TEN IND The Titans have won five of the last six against the Colts in this series, including four consecutive wins. is an underrated division killer: Since 2019, the Tenne see running back averages 24.4 attempts, 137.4 yards and has 21 total touchdowns in 16 division games since 2019, including four games with 200-plus yards. Indy's been a top 10 team against the run this year by DVOA and may be getting back, which could tamper the enthusiasm for Henry this week. Since 2019 against the Colts, Henry has averaged 23.6 carries and 115 yards per game and scored six rushing touchdowns. The Titans secondary can be got, so I'm curious to see how Frank Reich attacks this defense and whether or not and end up playing. I like the Titans as long as they're not above -3. The Pick: Titans 24, Colts 21Bets: Titans -2.5, Henry oversSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV: Fox|Stream:fuboTV () Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons Moneyline Spread Total CIN ATL Really wish this game was in Atlanta for a and "Run 2019 LSU Back" tour after the Bengals offense lit up the Superdome in Week 6. Atlanta's pa s defense can be attacked ... but so can the Bengals run defense, and that's where the Falcons thrive. As ($), this game "features a cathedral ceiling and a cavernous floor" in terms of points scored and pace. Atlanta actually has more games in the 50s (2) than Cincy (1) this season, but if last week is an indication of Burrow and Chase getting things going, we could be in store for a shootout here. Conditions are prime and it looks like a sleepy game despite the big total.The Pick: Bengals 35, Falcons 28Bets: Over 47.5Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV () Featured Game | Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Moneyline Spread Total CAR TB Carolina returns home after the Inaugural Dead Cat Bounce game which still resulted in a double-digit lo s. The Panthers won't have much crowd support for what is likely 's final game in Charlotte (enjoy the afternoon, Bob and Ann!), and it'll be against , who earned another start. Carolina's defense has a lot of good young players, but it can only withstand so many plays each week with the offense unable to score. I don't like laying double digits in a road division game, but you can't talk me into rolling with the Panthers here. Brady is angry and has a defense he can exploit.The Pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 11Bets:Bucs -11Sunday, 1 p.m. ETTV: Fox|Stream:fuboTV () Featured Game | Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers Moneyline Jonnu Smith Jersey Spread Total WAS GB The Packers are in crisis mode and we're not even getting R-E-L-A-X from . Instead he wants to "simplify" the offense (and everything?) ahead of a matchup in Washington against a very beleaguered Commodores team coming off a ma sive TNF win against the . Washington loses for this game, but might be an upgrade. If you told me is playing a full half, I'll take Washington outright given how the Packers have looked. Washington's defense is stout against the run; if the Packers can't challenge down the field this could be another awkward situation for Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur. I tend to think Green Bay takes care of busine s with a stern week of Rodgers comments. I would not want to drop a deep touchdown pa s in Washington on Sunday. The Pick: Packers 21, WFT 14Bets: Pa sSunday, 1 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV () Featured Game | Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants Moneyline Spread Total JAC NYG Brian Daboll and the Giants might be THE story of the NFL this season. They're 5-1 and a win Sunday would mean matching their most wins in a single season over the last six years. Everyone and their brother will look at this game as a free square on New York as a road dog given how close the Giants keep games. It doesn't feel good to lay points with the struggling Jaguars against a well-coached group of G-Men, but this could be a big breakout game for .The Pick: Jaguars 24, Giants 17Bets: Etienne oversSunday, 4:05 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ () Featured Game | Las Vegas Raiders vs. Houston Texans Moneyline Spread Total LV HOU Both teams are coming off a bye for the first time this year; do we get a more locked-in offense or a more locked-in defense? Lovie Smith is the only thing holding me back from taking this over. If the Raiders get something like a 17-0 lead we could see things turn into a big-time slog. should EAT in this matchup against a bad rush defense. The Texans are 30th in DVOA against the pa s; if Vegas can get a lead and Lovie will let to s the ball around, we could see a ton of points here, particularly in the second half.The Pick: Raiders 31, Texans 28Bets: Over 45.5, Josh Jacobs rush yards, anytime TD, receiving yards overSunday, 4:25 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV () Featured Game | San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline Spread Total SF KC Jumped and the over/under for references to Super Bowl LIV was set at 3.5 -- FOX ran that broadcast, is running the broadcast for this game and will be running the broadcast for this year's Super Bowl. There's no chance LIV isn't referenced visually or audibly le s le s than four times with as much as it benefits FOX to do so. The Niners are riddled with injuries. is 15-2 against the NFC with an outrageous 45/10 TD/INT ratio and nine games of three touchdowns or more. Mahomes is first in the league in pa s touchdowns and explosive plays (20+ yards) and third in pa s yards. The 49ers are stout on defense, though -- this feels like a big-time, get-right game for them as a dog at home. The Ryan Tannehill Jersey Pick: 49ers 24, Chiefs 21Bets: 49ers +2.5Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETTV:Fox|Stream:fuboTV () Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks Moneyline Spread Total LAC SEA There's a path to this going under and it involves a LOT of against a very questionable Chargers run defense. I think this game goes over despite the big number -- the Seahawks can score and they are more than willing to give up points and big plays. The Chargers should get back this week. will be able to attack vertically and props will be suppre sed after Monday if Allen returns. I think we get points galore and a bunch of explosive plays here. Seahawks fans are a wild bunch so SoFi is likely stuffed with 12th Men.The Pick: Seahawks 31, Chargers 28Bets: Over 51Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ETTV:CBS|Stream:Paramount+ () Featured Game | Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets Moneyline Spread Total DEN NYJ 's hamstring injury lingers over this game. He's almost certain to play, if I had to gue s. If the Broncos were a reasonably competent team they'd be a good bet. They're not! The Jets are a touch overhyped. Please don't tell their fans I wrote that. Robert Saleh's defense is taking a step forward -- hopefully Jets ownership and management gives him time to develop that side of the ball. Denver has the top pa s defense by DVOA, but they're below average against the run. The Jets could cook with here. If I had to bet anything it would be the under.The Pick: Broncos 17, Jets 14Bets: NopeSunday, 8:20 p.m. ETTV:NBC|Stream:fuboTV () Featured Game | Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Moneyline Spread Total MIA PIT is expected to be returning for this game. Mike Tomlin in prime time isn't something I want to fade, but Tua is first in the NFL in YPA and the Steelers are just south of average in terms of defensive pa s DVOA. and are explosive plays waiting to happen and could have a field day against a Steelers secondary battling injury the last few weeks. The Pick: Dolphins 24, Steelers 16Bets: Pa sMonday, 8:15 p.m. ETTV:ESPN|Stream:fuboTV () Featured Game | New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears Moneyline Spread Total NE CHI Between the time Bill Belichick started extolling the virtues of the Bears entire roster (roughly mid-afternoon) and Wednesday evening, the Patriots line moved Tennessee Titans Jersey 1.5 points. It's a pretty simple situation: When Belichick does what he did, he knows he's winning the game. Anything under Pats -10 is good.The Pick: Patriots 24, Bears 7Bets: Patriots -10
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