2018 NFL Over-Under Win Totals Overachieving Bills might be in over their heads in 2018

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2018 NFL Over-Under Win Totals Overachieving Bills might be in over their heads in 2018

The were one of the more improbable playoff teams of 2017, a stunning story Bryan Trottier Men Jersey in Sean McDermott's first season as a head coach, going 9-7 despite a lack of talent and despite the underlying statistics saying they should have been a much worse team.All credit due, those factors might create some problems for Buffalo in 2018. The Bills' expected win-lo s record based on their points scored and points allowed projected them to be a 6.4-win team. Getting to nine wins, especially with some of those wins coming in weird situations (in the snow against the , etc), was a best-case scenario.Gone is , and Bills fans are probably happy about it, but his replacement is a three-headed monster that features (added as a free agent), Josh Allen (added via the draft) and (you may remember him from such films as "Five Picks in L.A."). Buffalo has a great coaching staff, but that's going to be an i sue this season barring expectations getting shattered.The offense in general could be a problem; the Bills have a potential breakout tackle in , but the offensive line looks like a patchwork group after trading to Cincinnati and losing and . The skill position guys aren't loaded either: has been up and down in his career, had a rough rookie season and just underwent knee surgery, and it really falls off after that. If your rookie quarterback with accuracy i sues is starting and throwing to , , and , it might end up being a long season. can mitigate some of that, sure, but it's going to be harder to grind out 1,300 rushing yards with Allen, McCarron or Peterman under center.The defense should give this team much more hope; there are some really good players returning to this unit, including standout cornerback , who excelled as a rookie in McDermott's system. was a free-agent find Pittsburgh Penguins Women Jersey last year. could serve as the same this year. Tremaine Edmunds is only 19 and a rookie, but more than capable of flashing at the middle linebacker position. , who played under McDermott in Carolina, should shore up the interior of this defense. If you're bullish on the Bills, it's because of this unit. Vegas is not quite that excited, . Early Schedule AnalysisIf you're bearish, it might be the early portion of the schedule, which starts with the (road), (home), (road) and (road). My goodne s that's a tough opening, and sure feels like a "throw McCarron/Peterman to the wolves" type of situation. The ( Jack Johnson Kids Jersey home), (road), Colts (road) and (home) is ... easier? It is, but even going 2-2 would be impre sive there for Buffalo. 0-8 isn't off the table here. The (home) and (road) close out the pre-bye schedule. The (home) are the reward out of the Week 11 break and then the Bills close with a bunch of division games surrounding a matchup: (road), Jets (home), Lions (home), Patriots (road), Dolphins (home).Why They'll Go OverThe logic in seeing the Bills win seven or more games basically boils down to two things: a belief in coaching, and an utter lack of belief in the AFC East. You know the Patriots will be good, but Buffalo could steal a game from them somehow. If McDermott can coach this team into a top-10 defense, it's not inconceivable the Bills could win a bunch of 17-13 or 17-10 games. They were 18th in points allowed last year . They only scored 18.9 points per game, good for 22nd in the league, and it's just hard to imagine that number going up barring everyone being off on the ability of either McCarron, Peterman or Allen to run a high-octane offense this year. Maybe Allen pulls a 2011 , looking scattershot in the preseason and coming out firing once the real games start. The Bills could pound the ball behind a better-than-we-expected line and take vertical shots with Allen (to who? TBD). Go .500 in the AFC South, beat the Bears or Chargers at home and win four division games and you're at seven wins before you know it. Why They'll Go UnderBecause there is just no conceivable way this offense will be any good. Allen was raw in college, and the Bills can't Brian Dumoulin Jersey exactly bust out the read option here. He's not going to be surrounded by weapons or a high-end offensive line, and that might be a problem, a suming he is ready to play. I've got questions about Peterman Nick Bjugstad Women Jersey or McCarron running a good offense with these weapons too. The defense can keep them in games, and if they steal some wins early against the Titans and Chargers, they could be at three or four wins by the time the break happens, which would set them up to win three or four more games down the stretch. If not, the Bills could be staring down an awkward record with only a few games left against easier teams.The PickI haven't dropped my best bets yet, but this is a pretty good bet to find its way on the list. The Bills just don't have the ammo to keep up with other teams on offense and if they start out slow, it might be time to see what they have in Allen. It feels a lot like last year for the Bears with , where they just have to hope that their young quarterback shows them growth over the course of the year after a rough start against tough defenses.VERDICT: UNDER
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