Beating the in January in Foxborough is similar in scope to invading and vanquishing an unending army of the dead. Bill Belchick and ? At home? In the playoffs? With a trip to the Super Bowl at stake? Say no more. This truly is Patriots-only territory. Nobody actually thinks they can go into New England and emerge with a win, but one team per season is required to try anyway. Except this time, a youthful, feisty and potentially foolhardy group of truly believes it's going to do the impo sible by bringing down the mighty Patriots. Take it from star cornerback : "We goin' to the Super Bowl. AND we gon' win that b---h"-- Jalen Ramsey to the crowd of Jaguars fans at EverBank Field Sports Illustrated (@SInow) In that sense, the Jaguars have a lot in common with that centered on capturing a live White Walker beyond the wall and transporting him back to civilization. Jon actually believed he could pull off such an impo sible feat. And so do the Jaguars. The thing is, Jon did accomplish his mi sion impo sible, though it came at a high cost. I'm not here to tell you the Jaguars will pull a Jon Snow and beat the Patriots on Sunday, but I am here -- -- to tell you that the Jaguars are going to give the Patriots a ton of problems. They're going to present a bigger challenge for the Patriots than the would've. For most teams, hanging around with the Patriots in Foxborough in January is too tall of an order. But the Jaguars own the nece sary players to follow a recipe that has worked against the Patriots in the past. The line for the game has been set at 9.5 points -- in favor of the Patriots, of course. That's way too high. I'm picking the Jaguars because this is setting up to be a one-score game, during which the Patriots will be tested and pushed to the brink. The Jaguars might not fulfill Ramsey's prophecy -- don't worry, I won't try to force a Ramsey- connection because that Francisco Mejia Jersey seems vastly inappropriate -- but they will cover the spread Aaron Loup Jersey . The last time the Patriots lost in the playoffs: Jan. 24, 2016, to the in the AFC Championship Game. That game was played in Denver, which makes the circumstances different from Sunday's game, but the Broncos used a formula that the Jaguars will also deploy. The Broncos technically had Hall of Famer under center, but in actuality, they had the corpse of Peyton Manning at quarterback. Manning finished the 2015 regular season as the league's lowest-rated quarterback (67.9) among 34 qualifiers. And the Broncos still won 20-18. They won because they hit the heck out of Brady and covered the heck out of his receivers. In that game, the Broncos' defense sacked Brady four times, hit him 17 times and knocked away 10 pa ses. Future Hall of Fame pa s rusher played for the Broncos in that game. When he retired last year, . "The way to beat Tom Brady is to hit him," he wrote for The Players' Tribune. "As many times as you can, hit him. And even then, it might not be enough." It turns out, there's a common theme when you look at the Patriots' home playoff lo ses over the years: They come against great defenses. The 2009 beat the Patriots in New England because of . The 2010 beat the Patriots in New England because of The 2009 Ravens sacked Brady three times. The 2010 Jets sacked Brady five times. The Jaguars fit the mold. They can do what the 2009 Ravens and 2010 Jets did. Heck, we should probably put the 2007 and '11 into that group. They sacked Brady seven times in two Super Bowl wins. The Jaguars finished this regular season with the second-most sacks (55 -- one behind Pittsburgh). After registering four sacks in two playoff games, their total rises to 59 or, to put it another way, 3.3 per game. According to Pro Football Focus, the Jaguars generate pre sure at a rate of 39.6 percent even though they blitz only 18.7 percent of the time (league average is 29.3 percent). Meanwhile, Brady has been under dure s on only 31.4 percent of his dropbacks. Brady received a negative grade from PFF in one game this season, to the . In that game, the Dolphins sacked Brady twice, hit him six times and pre sured him on 35.3 percent of his dropbacks, according to PFF. There's a theme here: Pre sure. Not the pre sure of the moment, which Brady clearly thrives under, but pre sure from 300-pound men. He should expect to see pre sure Sunday. The Jaguars can generate pre sure around the edges considering defensive ends , and combined for 34.5 sacks. They can force pre sure up the middle considering defensive tackle racked up eight sacks during the season. They can hit Brady while their impre sive secondary, led by Ramsey, forces an under-dure s Brady to throw into tight windows. And if Brady makes a mistake, the Jaguars' defense can punish him by actually catching errant pa ses: The defense is at it again. INTERCEPTION! : NFL (@NFL) Hunter Renfroe Jersey And by turning turnovers into points: SACKSONVILLE TD! defense coming up BIG! : NFL (@NFL) If your response to all of the above is that the Patriots have Tom Brady and the Jaguars have , I would like to point out that the last quarterback to beat Brady this season was in that Week 14 game. In truth, it's a fair response and frankly, it's why I think the Jaguars will fall short Sunday. Just don't expect the Patriots to waltz through a defense that finished the season , second in yards allowed, second in points allowed, second in sacks and second in takeaways. I'm taking the 9.5 points -- even if betting against Belichick feels like a sin. Sunday, Jan. 21 AFC:Jacksonville Jaguars (3) at New England Patriots (1), 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS NFC: (2) at (1), 6:40 p.m. ET on Fox Jaguars at Patriots (-9.5) The Patriots are 12-5 against the spread. They've been favored in every single game this season.The Jaguars are 10-8 against the spread and 4-2 as the underdog. Vikings at Eagles (+3.5) The Vikings are 11-6 against the spread and 8-5 as the favorite.The Eagles are also 11-6 against the spread and 4-2 as the underdog. Jaguars (+9.5) I might be taking the 9.5 points, but I'll also bet on the Patriots winning and going back to the place where they belong. While I think the Jaguars will hang around, keep it interesting and challenge the Patriots, I don't think they'll dispatch them with a surprise attack. The Patriots know the Jaguars are gunning for them, and they're going to eliminate the threat. Let's not get too carried away here. The Patriots are going to win because they still have the best quarterback in football in Brady, who by the way, for all of his faults under pre sure, still led in league in pa ser rating under pre sure (96.6) this season, according to PFF. The Jaguars still have Blake Bortles. Brady still has , , , , and to throw to -- . Bortles doesn't have that kind of supporting staff, though he does have a healthy looking . And about that Patriots defense: It has actually been pretty great since the first month of the season. UPDATED!! Points allowed per game in NFL since Oct. 1 (incl. playoffs):1. New England, 14.02. San Diego, 14.93. Minnesota, 15.44. Philadelphia, 16.45. Jacksonville, 17.1 Bill Austin Hedges Jersey Burt (@BurtTalksSports) There's a difference between thinking the Jaguars will cover and the Jaguars will win. The Patriots should be heading back to the Super Bowl barring a barrage of turnovers. Just don't think they can get there by sleepwalking their way through the Jaguars. The Jaguars' defense will make it tough on them, but I still can't take Bortles to beat Brady in January in Foxboro. Vikings (-3.5) Maybe it's dangerous -- foolish even -- to pick against the top-seeded Eagles, In a way, it's kinda scary how their underdog status has transformed this Eagles team: Dog's gotta eat! Lane Johnson (@Lanejohnson65) Still, for a second straight week, I'm picking the Eagles to lose, this time to the Vikings, who Fernando Tatis Jr. Jersey I think will cover the spread. I wasn't all that impre sed by over the . Their offense under remains anemic and if the Falcons' secondary knew how to catch a football, I would likely be writing about the Falcons' chances to upset the Vikings in Minnesota. But The bounces off the DB's knee...And right into 's hands. NFL (@NFL) Furthermore, despite all of the talk about from the 2-yard line, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that : The make the stop on 4th down! NFL (@NFL) Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Credit to the Eagles for pulling off the upset. Credit to the Eagles for surviving and advancing. Credit to the Eagles for turning this underdog mentality into a rallying cry. But their run will end against a superior Vikings team. It's not that the Eagles are a bad team with . They're still good! Just not as good as the Vikings. The Vikings finished the regular season with the better defense ( ) and offense ( ). The Vikings have the ability to get after Foles, who sports a woeful 34.0 pa ser rating under pre sure, according to PFF. In their thrilling win over the , the Vikings tallied two sacks, three hits and 10 hurries of . They can get after Foles and that should force Foles into some tight-window throws against one of the game's most complete secondaries from to . The Vikings' secondary can catch alright: What a pick! Andrew Sendejo gets up and shows off the hands to come away with the INT. FOX Sports (@FOXSports) The Eagles will no doubt lean on their ground game, but that strategy didn't work out so well for the Saints and their historically great running back duo. The Vikings limited and to 68 yards on 21 carries (3.2 yards per carry) Sunday. This -- the Vikings' defense against the Eagles' offense -- is a total and complete mismatch. Underdogs are a nice feel-good story. But give me the dominant defense. Vikings win by a touchdown.
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